The Atlantic Council’s study highlights the critical need for modernization of the space-based elements of the US nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems, which are essential for managing nuclear weapons under extreme conditions. Despite substantial investments in the nuclear triad, the space-based NC3 systems face unique geopolitical, technical, and bureaucratic challenge such as the rising threats from counterspace weapons or ASATs developed by Russia and China, and internal DoD challenges. The internal DOD challenges being the shift towards a proliferated space architecture that may not prioritize NC3 needs appropriately.

The study, authored by space policy experts Pete Hays and Sarah Mineiro, emphasizes the secrecy surrounding NC3 and how it contributes to its neglect by policymakers. NC3’s critical functions include detection, warning, adaptive planning, presidential decision-making, and force management, with an absolute need for risk tolerance at zero, especially against unauthorized nuclear weapon use.

Key risks to the NC3 space-based system were identified and include China’s nuclear buildup and lack of strategic stability understanding, cybersecurity issues from digitizing NC3 systems, and fragmented bureaucratic responsibilities within the DoD. The study recommends a tailored modernization approach, a holistic strategy for integrating commercial and military space services, and recognition of the challenges in developing a resilient hybrid space architecture.

The integrity and confidentiality of the NC3 system is paramount to national security. This shift from analog to digital NC3 systems aims to enhance decision-making speed, but opened the entire system up to cyber-attacks thus needing robust protections against potential these such cyber-attacks. Additionally, securing the supply chain is crucial, as integrating components from various commercial, international, and government sources increases the risk of cyber exploitation. If this isn’t corrected the NC3 system could be exploited causing damage to the system, degradation, or false signals.