Due to the geopolitical situation between the United States and Russia, it would appear that Russia may be positioning themselves to rely on nuclear weapons onboard a satellite as an offensive measure. This satellite was known about for months, but the concern for them actually using it has to due with Russia’s shortcomings in their war with Ukraine– their economy is struggling and their technology has proven to be far behind western counterparts. It is not impossible that they act or escalate due to desperation. Furthermore, unlike the original Cuban Missile Crisis where the US and USSR were near-peers, the US has much more to lose than Russia in these scenarios. The US is by far the global leader when it comes to space, while Russia has seen a decline over the years and has pivoted much of their current economy to wartime so it is unlikely to close the gap in technology anytime soon. This means that the US not only has more targets to defend, but it also cannot rely on retaliation as a deterrent in the same way as in the past; MAD (mutually assured destruction) only works when both sides have something to lose.
The current options on the US side appear fairly limited. Ignoring the problem won’t make it go away, and diplomacy is unlikely to be productive considering the war in Ukraine. Moreover, Russia is already dealing with a large number of sanctions, so that is also not a viable option as a deterrent. While the US may have far greater space and cyber capabilities than Russia, they likely lack the ability to disrupt an attack of this magnitude as things currently stand. Even though hitting a satellite with a missile or other weapon may be within current US capabilities there are at least two major downsides to this:
- It is far from guaranteed and would likely be viewed as an escalation even if it did not succeed.
- It would likely put Russia in a scenario where they either use the weapon or have it destroyed and get nothing in return– considering their already desperate situation on the global stage, it seems unlikely they’d simply let it be destroyed rather than using it.
Overall, the situation is fairly bleak. There are some diplomatic steps being taken, and other countries have a role to play as well in that regard. However, there is little reason to expect diplomacy to lead to significant improvements of the situation. The only viable option forward for the US seems to be to continue increasing its space cyber capabilities to be able to handle worst case scenarios. Things in space tech move slow especially if they’re going to depend on funding from congress, so there may need to be an escalation or concerning event before anything changes, although I think we all hope that it doesn’t come to that.
Source: https://spacenews.com/russias-nuclear-threat-to-space-is-worse-than-a-cuban-missile-crisis-in-space/